Oscar Predictions

Tonight's the last horrah of the movie season. Here are my final predictions in the top 8 categories. You won't find anything super surprising.

BEST PICTURE: Brokeback Mountain
I can't see anything stopping this train. Look for Crash to upset, though.

BEST DIRECTOR: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Ang accomplished a thing of beauty AND he's long overdue for a statue. Don't see an upset happening here.

BEST ACTOR: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Though I think Joaquin Phoenix should win the prize, I can't see anyone beating the nearly undefeated Hoffman. Plus, Hoffman's performance singlehandedly garnered a Best Picture and Best Picture nomination for the film. Look for Heath Ledger to upset.

BEST ACTRESS: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
My favorite female performance of the year and most likely to win the award. Felicity Huffman might pull an upset, but Reese will come home with the statue not merely for this performance, but a career's worth of solid work. In my perfect world, Witherspoon and Keira Knightley would both win this award.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: George Clooney, Syriana
George was nominated thrice for this show, and this will be his prize. I'm hoping Jake Gyllenhall will be the night's winner, but don't count Paul Giamatti out either.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Amy Adams, Junebug
This is my most daring prediction and least likely to happen, but I have to go with my gut. Her's is certainly the most deserving performance among the nominees and has managed to keep Junebug in conversation. But perhaps you should look for Rachel Weisz to win in this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Crash
This is Crash's consolation prize.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Brokeback Mountain
It won't lose this award. Not a chance.

Last year I went 16/21 overall. We'll see how I do this year.